Funnel Defense Report: Week 8

Analyzing Pass and Run Funnel Matchups for Fantasy Football

In our ongoing quest to foresee the future, taking a comprehensive look at how an offense may attack their opponent’s defense is, in my opinion, a solid starting point. Each season, we encounter defenses that classify as run funnels, indicating opponents significantly rely on their rushing game in neutral and positive game scenarios. The same can be said for pass funnels: defenses that tend to be attacked through the air during neutral situations, usually defined as games within a seven-point margin either way.

Identifying these matchups is the focus of this article. The analysis of funnel defenses should not be the sole criterion for determining your weekly fantasy lineup. It’s merely an additional data point in your often challenging decision-making regarding who to start and who to bench.

Pass Funnel Matchups

Packers vs. Jaguars

This matchup could finally provide a high-volume passing performance for Jordan Love and the Packers, who have been emphasizing the run or maintaining balance since Love’s return from injury. Jacksonville now stands as the league’s most prominent pass funnel defense. Opponents have been avoiding a rush defense that allows the seventh lowest yards before contact per rush while attacking a secondary that gives up the NFL’s highest EPA per drop back. Every single one of the Jaguars’ opponents in 2024 has exceeded their expected pass rate, with only four teams facing a higher neutral pass rate this season.

Meanwhile, the Packers appear more at ease with reliance on Love, two months post-injury to his knee. They exceeded their expected drop back rate by 5% last week against Houston, resulting in a season-high 37 drop backs and 33 passing attempts. Increased passing volume will benefit Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, and Tucker Kraft — and perhaps Christian Watson too. Doubs, who isn’t typically a target magnet, recently had ten targets in Week 7 against Houston. While I would caution against putting too much stock in that distribution, a pass-heavy game plan against the Jaguars could lead to another strong showing for Doubs.

I must emphasize — and I never shy away from doing so — that the Packers rank as the NFL’s fifth most extreme pass funnel. This setup seems promising for numerous offensive plays from both teams. Some are suggesting this is a favorable fantasy environment m5 match schedule. Others concur eyon blacklist.

Browns vs. Ravens

The younger fans are about to experience the infamous Jameis Winston Effect. The fearless Winston will throw into any opening at any moment for any reason. He’ll make Brett Favre seem cautious by comparison, delivering both the best and the worst plays you’ve ever witnessed in quick succession. Regardless of his inconsistency, Winston is a fantasy asset. We should expect more of the same in his first start of 2024 for the Browns against the Ravens, who happen to be the second most extreme pass funnel and a staple of this analysis since Week 2. The Ravens possess one of the toughest rush defenses, forcing their opponents to pass frequently. Last week, the Buccaneers registered a 67% drop back rate against Baltimore, which was ironically 2% lower than anticipated. This season, Baltimore’s rivals have exceeded their expected pass rate by at least 7% in four out of seven games.

I anticipate Winston dropping back approximately 100 times in Week 8 based on current analytics. There’s little chance the Browns will establish a run against the heavily favored Ravens. Winston and the Browns are likely to chase points throughout the match, making it an exciting opportunity for David Njoku, Jerry Jeudy, and Cedric Tillman. This also makes Winston an intriguing option for those scrambling for a quarterback. The game script could become so unusual that one might start Winston alongside the Ravens defense and still find success. Embrace the Cleveland pass catchers in Week 8.

Don’t forget to tune in to episodes of Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry and the Rotoworld Football Show throughout the season for the latest updates on players, waiver wire assistance, start/sit advice, and more.

Titans vs. Lions

While it feels uncomfortable to discuss the Tennessee offense, I must inform you, dear funnel-loving reader, that the Titans are up against the league’s third most severe pass funnel defense in Week 8. The Titans just recorded a 66% drop back rate against the Bills in Week 7, 2% above their expected rate. vegas online casino However, this did not produce substantial volume for anyone except Calvin Ridley, who managed nine unproductive targets. With DeAndre Hopkins moving to the Chiefs this week, Ridley could see double-digit looks against the Lions. Tyler Boyd could also fit in if you’re digging deep in formats.

Whether these opportunities will result in significant output remains uncertain.

Dolphins vs. Cardinals

The return of Tua likely indicates a return to normalcy for the Miami offense as they navigate what could be the final year of the Mike McDaniel era. Tyreek Hill has been vocal in urging fantasy managers to confidently start him in Week 8 against Arizona. He didn’t specify the league’s scoring settings ph tools. Despite Arizona’s opponents having a slightly below-average pass rate this season, a trend toward passing against the Cardinals has emerged as each of the last four teams have exceeded their expected pass rate by at least 5%. Since Week 4, only four teams have had as extreme a pass funnel as the Cardinals, who allow the third highest completion rate over expected. This scenario is favorable for Tua and the Dolphins. They will undoubtedly seek to re-establish themselves as darlings of analytics after struggling to execute a competent NFL offense over the last month. I’m not as confident about this projection compared to the Packers or Browns going pass-heavy. After all, McDaniel prioritizes the run when the game scenario permits it. However, in Week 8, the Dolphins are likely to transition from the NFL’s run-heaviest offense to an above-average passing rate over expected. This shift makes Tua, Hill, and Jaylen Waddle compelling options. Jonnu Smith, who has received a target on 32% of his route runs in the last two weeks, should be considered if you are facing tight end challenges.

Run Funnel Matchups

Bears vs. Commanders

Amid discussions about losing the chance to see a Caleb-Jayden matchup in Week 8, it’s worth noting that the Commanders have become one of the league’s most consistent run funnel defenses. This reality is supported by Washington’s metrics, yielding the fifth highest rush EPA and the third highest rate of rushing yards before contact, essential indicators of weak run defenses.

The Bears, however, have demonstrated a willingness to commit to the run when the situation calls for it. They have been 5% below their expected drop back rate in the past three games, achieving a low 52% drop back rate during that span. Chicago is more likely than not to run at a high volume against a Washington defense currently profiling as the NFL’s most apparent run funnel since Week 4.

D’Andre Swift stands out as a significant beneficiary in this scenario big win slot. He has handled 68% of the Bears’ rushing attempts this season and continues to be utilized effectively in critical areas, notably within the green zone. Swift ranks among the top backs for inside-the-10 carries and is a solid option for fantasy enthusiasts aiming for touchdown opportunities.

The implications for Caleb Williams and the Bears’ pass catchers, however, might differ drastically. Since the Bears adopted a run-first strategy, Williams has averaged 229 passing yards per game at 5.9 air yards per attempt — the league’s lowest since Week 4. This leaves scant passing opportunities for anyone aside from DJ Moore and possibly Keenan Allen.

Broncos vs. Panthers

The comeback of Javonte Williams, a pleasant surprise for my struggling best ball teams, is poised to continue into Week 8 against a severely undermanned Carolina defense. The Panthers have conceded the league’s fourth highest rushing success rate and the third lowest rushing stuff rate (34%), positioning them as the NFL’s fourth most pronounced run funnel.

No franchise has faced more rushing attempts than the Panthers this season. Despite the Broncos not emphasizing the run heavily this year, they are likely to establish a strong ground game against Carolina in Week 8. The elite Broncos defense will create positive game situations, allowing Javonte to accumulate another 15-18 touches as the leading back in the Denver lineup.

Patriots vs. Jets

Will this matchup entail a neutral game script? Probably not. Could it? Well, possibly, given the Jets’ current shortcomings. It is in this non-blowout scenario that I anticipate the Patriots will successfully establish the run against New York, the league’s third most prominent run funnel through Week 7. Three of the Jets’ last four opponents have been at least 6% below their expected pass rate. Teams confronting the Jets are executing passes at a 51% rate in neutral situations — the third lowest figure in the NFL. Although their pass defense has shown reliability, the Jets have allowed the eighth highest rushing success rate and the sixth highest yards after contact per rush this season.

Rhamondre Stevenson, who is projected as the lead back in the Patriots’ backfield, has a potential path — albeit narrow — to decent rushing volume in a promising matchup. Fantasy managers should not completely dismiss him this week.

Texans vs. Colts

Colts opponents are currently operating 18% below their expected pass rate on the season. Everyone seems to be turning the focus back to running against a dismal Colts defense, which is not receiving support from a struggling Colts offense that is longing for a positive performance from their quarterback.

As you know, this means it’s another week for Joe Mixon. The run-heavy Texans, who were 9% under their expected drop back rate in Week 1 against the Colts, are likely to dominate the ground game from beginning to end. This could severely limit passing opportunities for Tank Dell, Stefon Diggs, and the other Houston pass catchers, and may even position CJ Stroud as a borderline starting candidate in 12-team leagues.

How do you think these matchups will influence your fantasy football decisions this week?